Thursday, August 20, 2009

Did we not call it?


We posted a CKSW update last night highlighting the channeling opportunities in this ticker. The stock seems to be trading a patterns between $6.80-$7.20. This sets up as a day trader's delight. Sure enough, the chart to the right will point out the same trend. Highs today as of 1 pm EST at $7.19 and the lows hitting $6.84. The stock is now attempting to make another uphill climb and should settle close to $7 for the closing price. If you are a day trader you should keep an eye on this ticker for the trading opportunities it presents.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

RIMM is a double

Research in Motion (RIMM) is the fastest growing company currently. That's a big statement to make in these economic conditions. The stock is trading in the $70 range, a far cry from it's 52 week low. However, this company has a lot of get up and go in it. I really believe this ticker will ride the smart phone craze and hit par ($100) again in the near future.

Another tech beauty to keep an eye on is Sigma Designs (SIGM) ranked second, or right behind RIMM on Fortune magazine's annual ranking of the fastest-growing public companies that was released this week. Fortune's fastest-growing list includes only profitable, publicly traded companies with at least $50 million in annual revenue and a market capitalization of at least $250 million. Companies on the list must also have posted yearly revenue and earnings-per-share growth of at least 20 percent. Sigma's revenue grew by 104 percent to $209. 2 million in the period covered by the magazine.

Hurricane's brewing.... Buy Nat Gas...

Back to an old favorite, Crosstex Energy. Yes, I just pulled this ticker from our watch list two weeks ago. However, throw away the charts at this point. I'm not ready to add it to the list, however, there is one major reason to buy this stock now. Well, besides the fact that the price is now in the $3.50's... Here is my reason illustrated for your viewing pleasure:


Yes, Hurricane Season is well underway. But Ana and Bill are now brewing out in the Atlantic and the gulf coast waters are heating up. This is the first sign that drilling season will be over pretty soon. It also points out that we are almost into the fall. Which simply stated, translates into the fact that we are almost into winter! Nat gas might be a good play here, especially with Crosstex trading at these lows.

Plays for the this week

ClickSoftware (CKSW) continues to be a personal favorite. Heck, this by far is my stock of the year if the calender said 12/31. Reason to love this stock, like I've said before, this is a $14 stock trading at a 50% discount. But that's not the main reason to like or even love this ticker. Channeling is. If you pull up the ticker on yahoo finance and click on historical prices, you will notice a channeling pattern forming. Even better, visit stockcharts.com and pull up the chart for the stock. Better yet, I will add the chart here for you to follow along...



The stock has set itself on a course to be channeled daily from the high $6's to low $7's. Case in point was today's trading, low of $6.80 and a high of $7.16. It sets up in similar fashion to One Liberty Properties (OLP), an old favorite of this blogger. I channeled that stock in the $5 to $6 range for a long time. The stock has since run to a closing of $8.30 today. I believe that CKSW will follow along the same path. This stock should run after a period of channeling to the double digit range. Once again, I am not a financial planner or advisor or broker. Complete your DD and homework and as always.... Happy Trading!

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

What's Cooking in the oven?

In the Restaurant sector I currently like Wendy's (WEN) and still have some interest on Steak n' Shake (SNS). Wendy's climbed from $3 to $5 and Steak n' Shake rose from $8 to $12. So who's my next restaurant to make a run? Hopefully, Dominoes Pizza (DPZ). The pizza ticker has trimmed back almost a full dollar from two weeks ago. But that isn't the reason for this pick. The charts are pointing to a nice bullish run and the stock is heading into season, yes, football season. Dominoes has three consecutive decent quarters and is set to report on October 13. At these levels, 50% off it's 52 week high, DPZ sets itself up nicely for a run in days to come. DD and Homework! Happy Trading.

RBC Capital raising price targets

RBC's wireless analyst Mike Abramsky is raising their price targets on Research in Motion (RIMM) from $100 to $150, on Apple (AAPL) from $190 to $250, and on Palm (PALM) from $18 to $25, justified by increased market shares which, as visibility improves to the huge smartphone opportunity, offer upside to financials and potential multiple expansion. Says Abramsky: "Smart phone Market: Huge, Nascent, and Underpenetrated." He also added "We are raising our smart phone penetration forecast to 35.1% of global handsets or 504 million units (395 million prior) by calendar 2012." Staggering. Opportunities in the smart phone market are enormous, and it's able to support multiple winners, and big ones, in the space.

As of this posting, RIMM and PALM are both up close to 4% with AAPL to the upside 2%.

Home Building

Construction of new U.S. homes dipped slightly last month, missing expectations, in a sign that the building industry's recovery from the housing bust is likely to be bumpy and gradual. With that said, I still like Beazer Homes (BZH), especially at prices under $4 a share. The stock has shown heavy insider buying during the month of August.

Home Depot, reported earnings that beat Wall Street expectations, however, they beat by managing the bottom line. Home Depot missed on top line and announced that they didn't expect to hit top line until the back half of 2010.

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Consumers, not the feds, hold the keys to future of Wall Street's big rally

This week, the consumer is in focus again as a stream of retailers report second-quarter earnings. Wall Street will want to know if retail companies, like businesses in other industries, made money primarily because of cost-cutting rather than from improved revenue or sales.

The nation's biggest retailer, Wal-Mart Stores Inc., last week followed the trend set by other companies, reporting earnings that beat Wall Street forecasts but also saying that its most important sales, those from stores open at least a year, fell during the quarter. And it's likely that other retailers still to announce results will continue that pattern.

Eventually, investors will need to see rising sales in order to become confident about the economy's ability to show sustained growth. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the nation's economic activity.

Off-price retailer TJX Cos. and the high-end Saks Inc. report results Tuesday, while apparel retailer Gap Inc. provides its earnings data on Thursday. Home improvement retailers Lowe's Cos. and Home Depot Inc. also release results this week, as do Target Corp., BJ's Wholesale Club and Barnes & Noble Inc.

Friday, August 14, 2009

Yes, We get a Pullback!

It's been looking more and more like we're heading into a nice little Bull Market. You know that market, it's the one where you can't do no-wrong! I posted weeks back about our V-shape recovery, not an L recovery. Secretly, I've been hoping for a pullback. You know, so we can buy lower and sell high! Well here it is... I nice Pullback that may extend into next week. As I write this blog, the Market is down 135 points. Please, we've had a nice run and a small little pullback like this won't harm us. For the record, I am a Bull, so don't get any ideas about me being a Bear.

Here's my theory on these pullbacks. You walk into a retail store and you see a clearance rack. We see this all the time, we naturally gravitate towards the big red sale signs. Follow me? Okay. Pullbacks are Wall-Street Sales! That's it. So what's for sale today at our favorite store? Here's a couple:

E-Trade (ETFC) down 8%
ClickSoftware (CKSW) down 4%
Beazer Homes (BZH) down 3%
Satyam Computers (SAY) down 3%
Xcellink (XCEL) down 11%


Now with that said, Patience will pay off big here. I really believe that this is only the begginning of the pullback. Our economic data reflects bearish news, unemployment is higher, earnings and spending is declining. Retail sales are awful. It certainly looks like the consumer will be the very last one to recover during this economy. Foreclosures are up month over month, I could go on forever. But this is the time to make some cash. If you have liquidity, do your DD and homework and find that perfect entry point on some great tickers that are on sale. Keep in mind, during these pullbacks you can find great companies with sale prices, not broken tickers with low prices. Ouch, the dow declined 5 points since I started writing....

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Report Card

So how are we doing? I'm sure you click our site to read about stock tickers that can give you results. If you read our posts on Thursday, you may have read about Wal-Mart, up almost two points today after earnings. We first posted WMT at 49.72 a share and wrote that we fully expected to see this ticker in the mid $50's in the very near future. The stock closed today at $51.88 and traded today right at $52.

You also may have read the post that called out 11 tickers that came up as a quick stock scan using very basic screeners such as price, volume and beta. If you did your DD and nightly homework, hopefully you selected Beazer Homes (BZH) up 7%, Charming Shoppes (CHRS) up 12% since Thursday's post and finally, Boise (BZ) has run 25% since Thursday.

Some of our other favorites, posted on the lower right of this blog have shown nice gains lately, Wendy's Restaurants (WEN) is up 8% recently, Xcellink (XCEL) gained 11% and if you noticed, we removed Crosstex Energy (XTXI) a long time favorite which we first found at 1.69 a share. In the past few days the ticker has actually given up 8%.

There are plenty of stocks out there currently that are setting up nicely to channel. Just some to watch and perhaps add to your watch list would be... OLP, CKSW and S. These three stocks have recently shown high volitility and a smooth trading channel. For best results, use Stockcharts.com to complete your DD and homework. Happy Trading Everyone....

BioForm to Announce Results


BioForm is set to report earnings for for its fourth quarter and fiscal year ending on August 19, 2009. The company recently recieved approval by the FDA to mix "RADIESSE(r) dermal filler with lidocaine, which, in clinical trials, has demonstrated an improvement in patient comfort and an increase in patient satisfaction with RADIESSE dermal filler procedures."
BFRM saw a spike earlier in the week, rising from under $2.80 to over $3.40 in a two day span. This may be worth looking into as we close out the week. As always, do your DD and good luck!

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Fed likely to leave rates at lows to aid recovery

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Signs are growing that an economic recovery may finally be taking shape, but with dangers still lurking, Federal Reserve policymakers are all but certain to leave a key interest rate at record lows to make sure any nascent turnaround gains traction. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues resumed a two-day meeting Wednesday morning, where they will take fresh stock of the nation's economic and financial conditions. So far, barometers suggest the worst recession since World War II is ending, and that the U.S. economy has started to grow again -- or will soon.

With the economy turning a corner, the Fed also will weigh whether consumer lending programs intended to ease the recession and stem the financial crisis should be extended.

"I think the Fed will show a bit more confidence in the staying power of the coming economic recovery and indicate that everything is on track," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.

Still, the Fed has warned that recoveries after financial crises tend to be slow. And dangers remain.

Beazer Homes (BZH) a triple?


That's right, Beazer Homes (BZH) and it's not a typo. And no I just didn't finish a bottle of crown or anything like that. Sometimes it's best not to buy the top-quality companies. This is one of those times when the worst stock can outpace its peers. The best sector right now to look for the worst of the worst is housing. It's been killed for over two years now. But the street believes that housing has bottomed, finally! Now back to Beazer Homes (BZH). Beazer has been taken down from $80 to 24 cents. They've had SEC, federal, state investigations, financial improprieties, scandal, mold, housing bust, credit problems. Everyone hates them. Everyone thought Beazer would file for bankruptcy. But Beazer survived, it managed to resolve the SEC, fed/state investigations, financial improprieties, scandal, mold, and credit problems. BZH reported on Friday an 81 cent beat. The quarter was still pretty bad at -72 cents. However, Management smartly bought back $115 million for $58 million. It also doesn't sound like they're done buying back debt at huge discounts. The company actually has $480 million in cash. During their conference call, management intimated they would continue buying debt on the cheap. They've hired Moelis & Company and Citigroup, and "expect to take steps in the future ... namely to protect our liquidity, increase our net worth, and reduce total indebtedness."

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Emdeon, best IPO in a long while...

Emdeon is a leading provider of revenue and payment cycle solutions that connect payers, providers and patients to integrate and automate key business and administrative functions throughout the patient encounter. Through the use of Emdeon's comprehensive suite of products and services, its customers are able to improve efficiency, reduce costs, increase cash flow and more efficiently manage the complex revenue and payment cycle process. Emdeon's competition? Cerner (CERN) currently trades at $63 a share.
NASHVILLE, Tenn., Aug. 11 /PRNewswire/ -- Emdeon Inc. (the "Company") today announced the pricing of its initial public offering of 23,700,000 shares of its Class A common stock at a price of $15.50 per share. Of the shares being offered, 10,725,000 were offered by the Company and 12,975,000 were offered by selling stockholders. The shares will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "EM."

Very seldom do I refer you to an OTCBB, but....

Xcellink International, (XCEL.OB) deserves a look here at 0.72 a share. It opened at 0.58 and promptly gained 0.13 before the close today. Here's a few words from their press release earlier today on marketwire.
LAS VEGAS, NV--(Marketwire - August 11, 2009) - Xcellink International Inc. (OTCBB: XCEL), a developer of a patented mobile payments & banking platform, is pleased to announce that it has begun trading and is quoted on the NASD (National Association of Security Dealers) Over-the-counter under the symbol XCEL.OB. The outgoing President and CEO, Mark Fingarson has returned to treasury for cancellation, 40,000,000 shares held by him in the capital of the Company.
Other reports on Xcel said the following; "The prospects for growth and the emergence of new opportunities in mobile financial services are encouraging more players to enter the market," said John Darnbrough, associate at Informa and author of the Mobile Payments and Banking report. Xcellink Director, Michael Malbourne, commented, "Xcellink holds patents for key elements of what is expected to become the primary global process for managing the provision of goods, services and payments in the consumer-driven world."

The best part of this OTCBB stock is that Xcellink International Inc. is a fully reporting Corporation and is filing documents to meet stringent reporting requirements set out by the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the public disclosure of financial statements. That deserves a good rating and a kudos to the folks at Xcellink.

Monday, August 10, 2009

Stocks fall as traders lock in profits after rally


NEW YORK (AP) -- With the stock market in a bit of a news lull, investors decided to lock in some profits.

Stocks fell modestly Monday in the absence of any major corporate or economic developments. Investors were cautious ahead of a two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve that starts Tuesday, and they're waiting for retail earnings reports to give some clues about consumer spending for the rest of the year.

Bond prices jumped as stocks fell. Monday's moves in both the stock and credit markets weren't surprising after major stock indexes shot up 1 percent last week. The Dow Jones industrials fell 32 points and all the major indexes each fell less than half a percentage point.

Investors want to see what the Fed has to say about how the economy is faring when its meeting ends Wednesday. It is widely expected the Fed will keep key interest rates steady at near zero, but Wall Street will be paying more attention to the economic assessment the Fed issues with its rate decision rather than any rate move itself.

"People want to see some words - some confidence - coming out of the Fed that the economy is improving," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati.

Even if the Fed says areas like housing and unemployment are making gradual improvements, traders have other worries. Banks still have billions of dollars in bad debt and the Fed said in a snapshot of economic conditions at the end of July that commercial real estate activity continues to weaken.

Consumers are expected to be one of the market's main concerns during August. Big retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Macy's Inc. report earnings this week, and others release results in the coming weeks. There appeared to be some nervousness ahead of those reports, as retailers were among the biggest losers Monday.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 32.12, or 0.3 percent, to 9,337.95. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 3.38, or 0.3 percent, to 1,007.10, while the Nasdaq composite index fell 8.01, or 0.4 percent, to 1,992.24.

Eight stocks fell for every seven that rose on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to a light 5.44 billion shares, down from Friday's 7 billion.

Analysts said the stock market's occasional retreats have been small in the past month and likely will continue to be mild because investors and money managers who missed the rally have been buying when the market dips.

Traders say the pause in the gains is welcome after the S&P 500 index jumped 15 percent in just four weeks and 49 percent from a 12-year low in early March. Major indexes ended Friday at their highest levels since last fall.

"Taking a break is a good thing or else we'd see valuations exceeding fundamentals a little bit too much," said Jeffrey Phillips, chief investment officer at Rehmann Financial in Troy, Mich.

WAL-MART reports on Thursday


Although not big on retail stocks... Wal-Mart (WMT) will report earnings on Thursday and bares watching. Wal-mart currently trades at about the same share price as Target (TGT). At about $49 a share, Wal-Mart should see itself in the mid $50's by mid-week. With the macroeconomics improving, shares of this ticker could revisit the $60 range in the not to distant future.

Stock Screen Results for 8/10

After running a quick stock screen based on price, volume and beta. And additionally running them through the charts I was able to find 11 tickers that may be worth looking into a bit further. Before I even post the tickers, keep in mind that the selection was based on a screen and chart comparison. The results have no barring on company, earnings or related news. Enjoy viewing and homework and trend watching needed!

ATSG, BZH, MGM, CHRS, BZ, UIS, ENTG, BLC, MNI, FCH, ZZ

Options Brewing

Freddie Mac (FRE) implied volatility is rallying along with the share price. Freddie is up 81% after reporting a second quarter profit. Freddie also reported that they do not need to borrow additional money from the Feds. Shares are up and implied volatility in the options jumped to 210. Among others, Implied volatility is also higher in Fannie Mae (FNM). Fannie Mae, meanwhile, reported a $14.8 billion net loss last week and said it would need more Treasury funds. However, these two set themselves up nicely for a pulling the trigger on a quick trade. As always, do your homework and Happy Trading.

Friday, August 7, 2009

Earnings calendar for August 10th thru 14th

Next week is another big week for companies to report their 2nd quarter earnings. There are a few companies that will get a lot of attention and have many eyes on them and ears listening for any kind of good news. Every industry from energy to bio's to retail and all others seem to have several earning postings set for next week. Some of the more interesting symbols to watch will be BBI, SSRX, PAAS, PRGN, BAP, BYI, DPS, URS and MERR just for starts. These companies all have early predictions in the positive but as usual nothing is for sure before announcements. Here's the link to the list for next week. A lot of homework ahead but hopefully worth it in the end.


http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/today.html

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Wendy's/Arby's posts profit, sees better July trends

* Q2 profit $0.06 excluding items, matching Street view

* Board OKs $50 mln stock buyback program

* Shares rise 2.7 percent (Adds CEO, analyst comments, details, background, updates stock action)

CHICAGO, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Wendy's/Arby's Group Inc (WEN.N), the third-largest U.S. fast-food chain, posted a quarterly profit on Thursday and said July sales trends were improving, sending shares up 2.7 percent.

The company's board also authorized a $50 million stock buyback program.

"An encouraging performance, especially when you consider the early commentary on July," Telsey Advisory Group analyst Tom Forte said, also citing the strong restaurant margin at Wendy's and overall cost-cutting and lower commodity prices.

Wendy's/Arby's had second-quarter net income of $14.9 million, or 3 cents a share. Excluding one-time items, it earned 6 cents, matching what analysts polled by Reuters Estimates had expected.

Arby's owner, Triarc, bought Wendy's International Inc for just over $2 billion in September to form Wendy's/Arby's, so the companies were not merged in the year-earlier quarter.

Consolidated revenue was $912.7 million, below the $925.2 million analysts had expected.

Same-store sales at North American restaurants slipped 0.4 percent at Wendy's and 6.9 percent at Arby's, which has introduced lower-priced sandwiches rather than discount its premium-priced roast beef sandwiches amid intense price competition.

At company-owned stores, same-store sales fell 1.2 percent at Wendy's and 5.8 percent at Arby's. However, in July, they rose about 2 percent at Wendy's and the decline at Arby's shrank to about 4.7 percent.

The restaurant margin at company-owned Wendy's was 15.9 percent in the quarter, above the 13.4 percent Forte had expected. The company expects to top its goal of 160 to 180 basis points of margin improvement for the year at Wendy's.

"We produced significant margin improvement of 370 basis points at Wendy's, and Arby's continued to show improvement despite aggressive competitive discounting," CEO Roland Smith said in a statement.

He said the company remains on track to deliver $100 million in restaurant margin improvement at Wendy's and another $60 million in general and administrative expenses by the end of 2011.

"We see significant future revenue opportunities for our company, including international expansion, dual branding development and breakfast," Smith added.

Sirius XM posts quarterly net loss but raises outlook

* Ended Q2 with 18.4 mln subscribers, down 1 pct

* Lost 186,000 subs from Q1, fewer than some estimates

* Q2 rev rose 1 pct to $607.8, matching Wall Street view

* Shares slip 9 cents to 49 cents a share in premarket (Adds results details, analyst comment)

NEW YORK, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI) posted higher quarterly revenue on Thursday, despite a reduction in subscribers, and raised its income outlook, citing cost cuts and a potential rebound in automobile sales.

The company, which earlier this year secured financing from John Malone's Liberty Media Corp (LINTA.O) (LCAPA.O) (LMDIA.O) to stave off looming debt problems, said subscribers to the pay-radio service declined by some 186,000 from the first quarter, better than many analyst expectations.

Shares of Sirius XM, which had risen sharply in the days ahead of the report, slipped 9 percent after it reported that it ended the period at 18.4 million. It attributed the quarterly decline to weakness in auto industry sales.

Proforma revenue rose 1 percent to $607.8 million, on par with analysts' views. The proforma figures reflect the fact that Sirius completed its purchase of rival XM Satellite Radio last July and compare the results as if they were a single company a year ago, also making some accounting adjustments for the transaction.

Net loss attributable to common shareholders for Sirius XM, home to programs by Howard Stern and Oprah Winfrey as well as Major League Baseball, was $157.3 million or 4 cents a share.

Excluding special items the loss was was 1 cent a share, matching analysts estimates, according to Reuters Estimates.

In the quarter, Sirius also trimmed subscriber acquisition costs to $57 per gross subscriber addition from $71 in the year ago quarter.

It raised its 2009 outlook for adjusted income from operations to more than $400 million, fueled by accelerated cost cutting. It was the second time it lifted the forecast, after raising it in May to $350 million from $300 million.

"We think the stronger subs performance, as well as better-than-expected profitability, in the quarter, suggests this number should be attainable," J.P. Morgan analyst Lev Polinsky said in a note to clients.

The outlook improvement comes as more subscribers to Sirius, which gains most of its new users from radios built into cars, sign up for premium programming packages and on higher prices for users with multiple subscriptions.

In addition, churn, a measure of the number of customers who quit the service, declined.

What a deal!

So what is video technology worth to you? If you are an ON2 Technology stock holder, the answer is a lot more than $0.60 a share. No, that is not a misprint, I did say JUST $0.60 a share. Google values the deal at a mere $106.5 million. On2's share price may be in the pennies, but it's client list includes Apple (APPL), Nokia (NOK), eBay (EBAY) and Sony (SNE) just to name a few. Google will put On2 to good use alongside the growing collection of YouTube servers. On2 specializes in advanced video compression, encoding, and publishing. Its "big video, small files" will serve YouTube well, regardless of which way bandwidth costs are headed. Again, $106.5??? I held this stock years ago, for full disclosure, I do not have a position in it now. But On2 remained on my watch list for years in part for sentimental reasons. On2 Technologies was one of the stocks I bought years ago. And to this day, I believe in the company and it's potential value. $0.60 cents Google? Here's what a poster on Google's (GOOG) message board wrote today...
A BRILLIANT AND VERY CHEAP MOVE TO SOLVE THE VIDEO PROBLEMS ON ALL OF GOOGLES PLATFORMS!!
MAKES THE ON2 BID, THE BEST BID EVER IN THE HISTORY OF GOOGLE!
This poster is 100% spot on! This is brilliant on behalf of Google. Classic example of the rich getting richer, the haves taking advantage of the have nots. Really... $0.60? To Google you have to say great job and Congrats on acquiring On2, no, for stealing On2. To On2 shareholders... I can't see any of them happy with this deal, unless they bought at current levels of sub $0.40. It will be interesting to see how this one unravels.

Google to buy On2 Technologies in $106.5M deal

Google Inc. will acquire On2 Technologies Inc., a developer of video compression technology, in a deal valued at about $106.5 million, the companies said Wednesday.

Under the terms of the agreement, each outstanding share of Clifton Park, N.Y.-based On2 will be converted into 60 cents worth of Google (GOOG) class A common stock.

“Today video is an essential part of the web experience, and we believe high-quality video compression technology should be a part of the web platform,” said Sundar Pichai, vice president of product management at Mountain View-based Google. “We are committed to innovation in video quality on the web, and we believe that On2’s team and technology will help us further that goal.”

The 60 cents per share deal represents a premium of approximately 57 percent over the closing price of On2’s common stock on the last trading day immediately prior to the announcement of the transaction, and a premium of approximately 62 percent over the average closing price of On2’s common stock for the six month period immediately prior to the announcement of the transaction.

The transaction, which is subject to On2 stockholder approval, regulatory clearances and other closing conditions, is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2009.

Dollar Store IPO... again?


As we await the earnings release for Dollar Tree (DLTR) today, another dollar store is making some headlines, again. Dollar General might once again see itself public. According the the Wall Street Journal, Private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, which operates KKR Financial Holdings (KFN), is preparing the company for an initial public offering. KKR, by teaming up with Fidelity Investments, will sell shares to institutions, as well as the public.

Dollar General has more than 8,400 stores in 35 states, and sells discounted housewares. Like other discounters, the company has benefited from consumers trading down on home goods. In the quarter ending May 1, Dollar General earned $83 million, exceeding the $5.9 million it earned a year earlier. The company's sales also jumped 16% to $2.78 billion from $2.4 billion, while same-store sales increased 13%. The company was purchased by an investment group that included affiliates of KKR and Goldman Sachs, among others, for $6.9 billion in July 2007.

Earnings to watch closely today

Before, during and after the close today we will be keeping a close eye on these seven earnings releases: Aecom (ACM) EPS estimates of 0.44, Angiotech Pharmaceuticals (ANPI) EPS estimates of 0.03, Delta Petroleum (DPTR) EPS estimates of -0.14, TICC Capital Corporation (TICC) EPS estimates of 0.14, Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) EPS estimates of -0.01 and Chryon Corporation (CHYR) and Wendy's (WEN) who did not provide guidance into today's earnings. We expect heavy volume today on each of these tickers. Happy Trading!

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Why I still love ClickSoftware (CKSW)


ClickSoftware Technologies Ltd. (CKSW): Stock price is 220% higher than last year. Vectorvest currently has the stock rated in the top 5 of it's picks with a long term value of over $14. And just read that chart. CKSW continues to be a winner and perhaps the most unloved and undervalued ticker on the market.

2009, is it really almost gone?

Okay, he we are, watching the calendar pages turn ever so quickly. Is it really almost football season? September is weeks away? Will the leaves start turning? It's time to check that portfolio and find out how you have stacked up for the year. If you're like me, I track every trade daily on a spreadsheet with a running total for the year. It calculates percentage and dollar gains for the year. But if you aren't like me, you should really tally up all the trades and find out where you stand. It's simple to do, just click on your accounts history tab of any online brokerage service that you currently use. After you sum up your numbers, compare yourself to the S&P 500 and for fun, several sectors this year.
So how did you end up? Hopefully with a little research, knowledge and lady luck you are way up! Happy Trading and best of luck for the back half of the 2009 calendar year. I think I hear the Bull charging.... DOW 14,000 here we come!

SEC moving toward banning flash orders

NEW YORK (AP) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission is moving toward banning a trading practice that gives some brokerages a split-second advantage in buying or selling stocks.SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro said in a statement Tuesday that the agency is working to create a rule to ban the trades known as flash orders.

Flash orders give certain members of exchanges including Nasdaq, Direct Edge and BATS the ability to buy and sell order information for milliseconds before that information is made public. High-speed computer software can take advantage of that brief period to allow those members to get better prices and profits.

"I have asked the staff for an approach that can be quickly implemented to eliminate the inequity that results from flash orders," Schapiro said. Any proposal to eliminate the orders would still have to be approved by the entire commission and be open to public comment before being implemented.

Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., a critic of the orders, said in a statement that Schapiro personally assured him the SEC would ban the practice. Last month, Schumer sent a letter to the SEC urging it to eliminate flash orders and said that if it didn't, he would write legislation to do so.

Banning flash orders is more about the perception of fairness than any practical change in trading, said Sang Lee, a managing partner at Aite Group. He noted flash orders only make up around 2 percent or 3 percent of total trading volume.

The move to ban flash orders would not have a major impact on the market share of exchanges, Lee said. The long-term trend of established exchanges such as New York Stock Exchange losing business to newer participants like Direct Edge and BATS will continue, regardless of whether they can attract customers through flash order programs, he said.

Exchanges have become increasingly competitive as they try to add more clients. However, that has led to price cuts exchanges charge to customers in recent quarters, which have pressured margins.

In fact, BATS spokesman Randy Williams said the company began offering flash orders because of increasing competition. Williams said BATS supports any review of flash orders.

"We're ready to discuss it if the SEC asks about it," Williams said.

Direct Edge's CEO William O'Brien also said in a statement his company would welcome any SEC review of flash orders.

A spokeswoman for Nasdaq did not immediately return requests for comment on the potential ban.

Today's Movers...


As first noted by Chris last night, Frontier(FRNTQ) is up and running today up 43% from the open. Other notable gains are Saytam Computers (SAY) up 8% and Sirius Radio (SIRI) ahead of the earnings call this week is up 9%. We are currently watching Itau Unibanco (ITUB) for the earnings release this afternoon. As of this post, the stock is trading up 1%. As always, do your DD and plenty of homework. Happy Trading... we'll catch up again at the close!

Monday, August 3, 2009

Frontier flying high?

I am by no means an expert on investing in the airline industry but as far as I can see if you are willing to take some risk there might be a huge upside to FRNTQ. Just take a look at the last few days and you just have to be interested in researching further especially with of the other airlines trying to buy them like Southwest who is putting in a serious bid (see below). They also have volume and 8 months in a row of having an operating profit in which they have to report on a monthly basis due to the chapter 11 filing. Might want to do homework fast and get in on this.

Southwest plans to bid for Frontier

This weeks watch close list

Nothing fancy here guys (no for sure can't miss must buys) but after much reading and studying here's a few picks worth a look as long as you do your DD. BIEL, CIT, MNI, ORBC, KFN, TSPT, COSI, VTRO, CMLS, HRRN. These are just a few that came up several times working through numbers like volume, insider transactions, volatility, dates for earnings announcements, etc...
They also are showing up on several analyst watch lists like below for example.

http://daytradingstockblog.blogspot.com/...

Loading up!!!

In a 13G filing made with the SEC late last week, Coatue Management has disclosed a 5.03% ownership stake in E*Trade Financial (ETFC) and they own 56,057,572 shares. This is a brand new position for them, as they did not show a holding in ETFC as per their last 13F filing which disclosed positions as of March 31st, 2009. ETrade's largest shareholder is none other than Ken Griffin's hedge fund Citadel Investment Group, the Citadel Investment Group is up 32% YTD as of July 1. This ticker will be one to watch closely!

Keryx Phase 3 Announcement



A day late to the party, but is KERX still worth looking into? NYTimes posts that Keryx Biopharmaceuticals just announced an agreement with the FDA on a Special Protocol Assessment for a Phase 3 trail of KRX-0401 (Perifosine).

We all saw a spike today of 0.46, but will this trend continue? Q2 earnings have yet to be announced, and with the announcement today of Phase 3 things may be looking good for Keryx. I am still not sure how this will play out, this may just be a simple buy and hold, but something worth looking into regardless.

Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Announces Agreement with FDA on a Special Protocol Assessment for Phase 3 Trial of KRX-0401 (Perifosine) in the Treatment of Multiple Myeloma

Call me crazy, but.....


I'm liking the prospects of a quick trade on AERO. Technically, AERO Gardens, (AERO.OB) has been showing support around 0.07 and resistance in the 0.18 range. Stock currently trades at 0.15 with a target price of 0.20 near term. What makes it even more intriguing is the insider buying. During July alone, the stock has been purchased 5 times by insiders. Call me crazy, but do your homework on this little guy!

Beware of the Spammers


If you're like me, your spam box is overflowing with Spam emails from classic pump and dump stock picks. The latest company to hit my box is Cobra Energy (CGCA.OB). Cobra has been tagged a ten bagger by James Rapholz- B.A.M.S. Economics. Here's a line straight from his email... "I could be wrong. Profits might exceed even my updated projections, especially now that Cobra has DOUBLED its working interest in the sweet spot. I'm giving you the heads up on this monster-in-the-making because, frankly, I'd like to entice you to subscribe to my newsletter, Economic Advice." Yes this monster of a company has just one registered employee, it's CEO...., or should I call him Superman? And these spam emails just keep hitting the inbox, Kenneth Coleman was next pumping InnerClick (ICLK.OB) as the next M&A prospect for Google. How is this allowed by the SEC? Thousands if not millions of investors get suckered into these buys everyday. You know the rest, they pump the stock, volume and price go up, and overnight, they dump the stock leaving the novice investor with just pennies on the dollar.

BioTech Hype?


With all the hype surrounding BioTech Stocks today, INO, ANDS, AMGN, GILD, CELG, GENZ, BIIB just to name a few. I thought I would throw in another little guy to the mix. Array BioPharma (up 3.95% today on low volume). Array has eight programs on clinical trials, it has created all of these on it's own, therefore owning 100% of the rights. As these drugs go forward with trials and prove their concept, Array will be in position to raise substantial capital. As always, especially in this sector, do your homework on this little speculative stock. Happy Trading!

Sunday, August 2, 2009

NANM swine flu masks

I don't know about anyone else, but I am definitely going to keep a close eye on NANM this week. There have been serious insider buying and with news like this below, well, you never know. My suggestion is everyone take a close look at this stock.
N-95 masks not available in India, big opportunity for NANM.
Kalyani Sardesai, TNN 1 August 2009, 05:56am IST

PUNE: The non-availability of N95 mask, specially designed to spread the check of H1N1 flu, over the last two months is a matter of concern for both
doctors and distributors of surgical appliances, who stress that if the mask were available it would have made a significant difference in checking the spread of the H1N1 virus.
Anup Gujar, a city-based wholesaler, says: "Though I get over a thousand enquiries for the masks daily, I cannot comply. This shortage is all over India."
Jayesh Kasat, owner of a retail shop in Narayan Peth, points out that the public is now making do with surgical and cloth masks that come at Rs 5 and Rs 20, respectively. "From five to ten masks a day, I sell over 400 masks daily, and still they are not enough."
Similarly, wholesaler Hiren Sanghvi says he has sold over 60,000 of the regular cloth and surgical masks in the last four days. "Something is better than nothing," he says. However, he adds that he is hopeful of being able to procure the N95 masks by next week. "The company has assured us that it will send some," he says.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/NEWS/.

Saturday, August 1, 2009

Worth a look... (CVM)


CEL-SCI Corporation, (CVM) engages in the research and development of drugs and vaccines used in the treatment of cancer. The company’s lead product includes Multikine, which is under development for the treatment of cancer and is cleared for a Phase III clinical trial in advanced primary head and neck cancer patients. Multikine is a patented immunotherapeutic agent consisting of a mixture of naturally occurring cytokines, including interleukins, interferons, chemokines, and colony-stimulating factors. The company also develops CEL-1000, which is derived from a pre-clinical technology called ‘Ligand Epitope Antigen Presentation System’ for protection for animals against avian flu, herpes, malaria, viral encephalitis, smallpox, vaccinia, and cancer, as well as CEL-2000, for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis. The boards this weekend are all chattering about the possible vaccine to fight H1N1, or the swine flu. From Yahoo Finance, to Google, to AOL... investors are buzzing about the upside this stock may have.